The June IPCA-15 rose 0.69% compared to May, slightly above expectations; health plans go up

The National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), Brazil’s official inflation forecast, rose 0.69% in June compared to June, up 0.10 share factors (pp) from the speed recorded in May (0.59%). The sub-element that had the best influence on the month-to-month fee was health plans, which rose by 2.99% to 0.10 pp within the June consequence.

The IPCA-E, which is the cumulative quarterly IPCA-15, was 3.04%. Over the yr as an entire, the IPCA-15 rose by 5.65%, and within the final 12 months, the speed fell to 12.04%, instantly beneath the 12.20% recorded within the earlier 12 months. In June 2021, the index was 0.83%. The information was launched this Friday (24) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Market expectations, in accordance to the Refinitiv settlement, rose by 0.62% compared to May and by 11.98% year-on-year.

Data One day after the National Monetary Council (CMN) set its 3% inflation goal at 2025 and the day has handed, the Central Bank has suspended the sequence of successive cuts within the goal to be pursued in its financial coverage.

Increase transportation and health plans

All product and repair teams surveyed had a rise in June. The Transport Group had the best influence, rising by 0.84% ​​compared to May (1.80%). The group had 0.19 pp within the total index. The largest variation was within the Clothing group (1.77% and 0.08 pp).

Another noteworthy group is Health and Personal Care (1.27%), which contributed 0.16 pp to the June index, largely due to health plans, which underwent changes of up to 15.50% approved by the National Health Agency (ANS) in May. . 26, in drive since May 2022 and ending its cycle in April 2023. In the group, it additionally had a rise of 1.38% in pharmaceutical merchandise, with an impact of 0.05 pp on the month-to-month index.

Returning to transport, the group’s slowdown was due to a fall in gasoline costs (-0.55%), which rose by 2.05% in May. Despite the rise in diesel (2.83%), ethanol and petrol fell by 4.41% and 0.27%, respectively.

At the highest of transport, airplane tickets (11.36%), voluntary automobile insurance coverage (4.20%) and license plates and licenses (1.71%) stand out. Motorcycles (1.66%), new automobiles (1.46%) and used automobiles (0.12%) additionally rose in worth.

The optimistic change in metropolis buses (0.32%) corresponds to the 11.36% readjustment of fares in El Salvador (3.64%), which has been in drive since 1 April, however was solely exceeded on 4 June. For intercity buses (1.34%), there was an adjustment of 17% in Belo Horizonte (9.34%), in drive since 16 May, and 11.85% in El Salvador (3.66%), in drive since 10 June.


In May (-3.85%) there was just one fall within the Housing group, with a rise of 0.66% in water and sanitation charges (4.29%), due to the changes utilized in three areas: 20.81% in Belem (11.41%). from 28 May, 12.89% in São Paulo (10.99%) from 10 May, and 4.99% in Curitiba (4.51%) from 17 May.

Piped gasoline (2.04%) additionally contributed to the rise, following the 9.16% readjustment in Curitiba (7.98%) on 18 May, and 5.95% in Rio de Janeiro (3.28%) from 1 May.

In the Housing sector, electrical energy remains to be essentially the most important (-0.68%). As of April 16, the inexperienced flag went into impact, by which there is no such thing as a further cost on the electrical energy invoice. Since September 2021, the Water Scarcity flag has been in drive, with a rise of R $ 14.20 per 100 kWh consumed. Variations within the space ranged from -3.42% in Brasilia to 6.16% in Reef, the place the tariff adjustment was 18.77%, which has been in drive since 29 April. On 22 April, fee changes of 24.23% have been utilized to Fortaleza (5.07%) and 20.97% to El Salvador (3.72%). Another sub-item that fell in June was bottled gasoline (-0.95%).

The housing group is, by the way in which, the one one to fall within the quarter (-1.54%), pushed by the outcomes of the May merchandise (-3.85%) below the affect of electrical energy.

Food and drink are slowed down

The Food and Beverage group (0.25%) slowed down after rising 1.52% in May. The consequence was the influence of meals consumption at residence, which rose from 1.71% to 0.08% in May. Long-term milk, which rose by 7.99% in May, rose by 3.45% in June.

In addition, there have been falls within the costs of carrots (-27.52%), tomatoes (-12.76%), potatoes (-8.75%), greens (-5.44%) and fruits (-2.61%). .

There was additionally a decrease enhance in meals exterior the house from May (1.02%) to June (0.74%), primarily due to the results of the snack, which rose by 1.10% compared to the change. 1.89% within the earlier month. Lunch (0.70%) introduced a consequence increased than that recorded in May (0.52%).

The remaining teams have been 0.07% in Education and 0.94% in Housing Articles.

By area, all areas surveyed had a rise in June. The highest was in El Salvador (1.16%), primarily due to petrol (4.25%) and a 20.97% adjustment in electrical energy tariffs (3.72%). The lowest enhance was in Belém (0.18%), due to the autumn within the costs of açaí (-8.08%) and petrol (-1.70%).

History of inflation

(IBGE information company)

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